Field notes
How to read consumer import statistics without drowning in noise
Import tables look decisive until you sit with them for an afternoon. A jump in shampoo units through Cat Lai in one month can mean a promotional push, a delayed container clearing at once, or a real change in who supplies the category.
Start with a three-year monthly view for your HS family, not a single year-to-date total. Mark Vietnamese holidays and known retail campaign windows on the same chart. Spikes that land only in those windows rarely justify a supplier switch on their own.
Next, split origins. If growth comes from one country while others stay flat, ask whether that is price, capacity, or a documentation change that favoured a particular corridor. Interview two forwarders who handle the category; their language about dwell time often explains what the table cannot.
Finally, write a one-paragraph interpretation before you share the chart with colleagues. The paragraph forces a claim: seasonality, corridor shift, or supplier concentration. Without that claim, statistics become decoration rather than guidance for the next buying cycle.